These mini-polls have turned into a brutal referendum on the clout of Ruto’s closest lieutenants.
Deputy President Kithure Kindiki has thrown his full weight behind UDA candidate Leonard Muthende in Mbeere North, barely 21 kilometres from his Tharaka-Nithi backyard.
A defeat to Rigathi Gachagua-backed Democratic Party candidate Newton Kariuki would deal a devastating blow to Kindiki’s claim as Mt Kenya’s new kingpin and cast serious doubt on his 2027 running-mate prospects.
In Malava, Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi faces his own moment of truth.
Having merged his ANC into UDA, Mudavadi is banking on David Ndakwa to fend off DAP-K’s Seth Panyako. Kakamega Senator Boni Khalwale issued a blunt warning:
“If the opposition takes Malava, President Ruto will have no option but to drop Mudavadi from the 2027 equation.” Mudavadi’s failure to deliver Western votes in 2022 still stings State House strategists.
Kasipul in Homa Bay exposes fresh cracks in the opposition ODM following Raila Odinga’s death last month.
Party chair Gladys Wanga is backing Boyd Were, while Deputy Governor Oyugi Magwanga openly supports independent Philip Aroko. The rebellion threatens Wanga’s rumored negotiations to become Ruto’s running mate.
Opposition figures led by Rigathi Gachagua are framing the contests as proof that Kenya Kwanza’s popularity is crumbling.
“These results will force Ruto to dissolve the Cabinet,” Gachagua predicted. The outcomes will dictate whether Ruto sticks with current partners or starts shopping for new pre-election deals as early as January 2026.
With the President deliberately staying off the campaign trail, all eyes are on how Kindiki, Mudavadi, and their candidates perform under fire.
For some of Ruto’s closest allies, November 27 could mark the beginning of a painful political exile.
